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| Polls project French leftists will win most seats in snap election, beating back far-right surge |
The French legislative elections of 2024 have been marked by significant political shifts and high stakes. President Emmanuel Macron's decision to call snap elections following a poor performance in the European Parliament elections led to an intense and fast-paced campaign. The first round of voting, held on June 30, saw Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) gaining substantial ground with 34% of the vote, positioning them as a potential major force in the National Assembly.
Macron’s centrist alliance, Ensemble (ENS), experienced significant losses, securing only 20.3% of the vote, placing them third behind the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) which garnered 28.1%. This outcome has led to a highly fragmented political landscape with no clear majority expected in the second round of voting scheduled for July 7.
The potential implications of these results are profound. A victory for the National Rally could disrupt France's traditional political dynamics and have broader impacts on European and global politics. The RN, under the leadership of Jordan Bardella, is skeptical of France’s role in NATO and the EU, which could strain Western alliance's already facing challenges from the Ukraine war and the possibility of a Trump presidency in the U.S.
The first round saw the RN projected to win between 230-280 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly, while the NFP was estimated to secure 125-165 seats, and ENS between 70-100 seats. This fragmentation raises the possibility of a hung parliament, necessitating coalition-building and strategic withdrawals by candidates to prevent a far-right majority.
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| French left says ‘ready to govern’ as country faces hung parliament |
President Macron has called for a united front among “democratic and republican” forces to counter the rise of the RN, urging support for left-wing candidates where necessary. Former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe echoed this sentiment, emphasizing the need to vote against both far-right and far-left candidates to maintain political stability.
As the campaign progresses towards the crucial second round, the political future of France hangs in the balance. The final outcome will not only determine the composition of the National Assembly but also influence France's role on the international stage and its internal policy direction for years to come.
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